Posted: Oct 25, 2006 11:22 Post subject: Deeper Analysis: Gambling/Lottery Strategies Based On Skips
Super Crocodilule & Axiomatic Colleague-Of-Mine:
I presented earlier a bunch of lottery (and gambling) strategies derived from SKIPS. I wrote about it at this message board and also at the main website:
Super Crocodilu Apache — a very active member of this community — made two serious contributions regarding strategies based on skips. He wrote in a forum here about the bookie lottery. In a different forum (VIP) he also presented his roulette system based on three consecutive skips. Crocodilu Apache deserves credit for his discoveries.
I significantly upgraded my previous software that generated skip systems:
SkipSystem.EXE version 3.0, October 2006.
I offer an early release especially for the members of this message board. You go to the FTP site and download the program, even if it does not show ‘version 3.0’. I will make the necessary updates in a few.
This version also adds two new games: lotto-4 and NFL (American) football. The ‘football’ function requires two additional files. You can download TEAMS.NFL from my FTP downloads site. You can create the other file — NFL.ODS — by copying and pasting the point-spread results I published in the sports betting forum. Make sure there are exactly 15 results (i.e. teams) per line (including ‘open’ in some weeks).
There are three fundamental elements when generating gambling/lottery systems derived from skips:
~ the degree of certainty DC;
~ the skip corresponding to the degree of certainty;
~ the cycle of fruition for the system to hit.
I set the degree of certainty to be close to 1/e as to be correlated to ‘Ion Saliu’s Paradox of N Trials’. The new degree of certainty DC in version 3.0 corresponds to shorter skips. In turn, shorter skips lead to shorter cycles of fruition.
The cycle of fruition is a tricky parameter. I haven’t found a formula to quantify it (in relation to DC or skip). But we can “visualize” it this way. The skip is 5, for example. If we play a system ‘under the skip of 5’, the system requires from 1 up to 5 draws (trials, spins, etc.) to complete. The ideal situation is ‘skip=1’. The cycle of fruition is 1: The number either hits in the next draw, or it turns into a loser.
The problem with playing ‘ABOVE a skip corresponding to the 1/e degree of certainty” is the…uncertainty of the end. The skip could end after a big number of trials. Take the case of roulette, for example. There are roulette numbers that hit again AFTER 200 spins, even more sometimes!
The cycle of fruition, as I see it, requires that the system numbers be played for the next several drawings. Some of the numbers will no longer meet the skip restrictions after a few draws; therefore, they must be discarded; new numbers become eligible for the system, based on their new current skip. Perhaps there are better (EASIER!) ways, but I haven’t discovered them yet.
I’ll present next a few recent examples or samples of my playing with SkipSystem.EXE: American football and roulette. The program generates 5 systems automatically. The reports show also the file names. For example, in the case of football, the automatic systems are named FFG-1F.SYS to FFG-5F.SYS. You can still create your own system based on the last two skips; you choose the file name.
The program treats the gambling systems based on:
~ two consecutive skips;
~ three consecutive skips.
Each category in turn is founded on two parameters:
~ UNDER/EQUAL TO a skip corresponding to the 1/e degree of certainty;
~ ABOVE a skip corresponding to the 1/e degree of certainty.
At the end, the report shows total number of hits for each system. Actually, the ‘number of hits’ counts the number of occurrences for each system in the range of past drawings (horse races, spins, weeks) analyzed.
The program does NOT count the 1st skip in the string and the last skip (i.e. for each number analyzed). The method is a lot more accurate than before. The 1st skip is not complete yet; it is still running and we don’t know when it will end. The last skip is not certain: We don’t know if the program had sufficient data to establish the last skip.
The counting of a system occurrences starts at the skip in front of the last one and goes to the beginning of the string named Any Position.
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Football Skip Chart and System Hits
File: NFL.ODS; Date: 10-25-2006
Weeks Analyzed: 100
-----------------------
The 49ERS and the RAVENS were idle, so we eliminate them from the list. JAGUARS and TEXANS played in the same game, so they canceled each other. We eliminate them from the list. The remaining qualifying teams are:
BILLS BRONCOS CHIEFS FALCONS PACKERS VIKINGS = 6.
The system predicted 5 winners:
BRONCOS CHIEFS FALCONS PACKERS VIKINGS.
The system #5 (‘3 skips ABOVE 1’) predicted 10 teams to be bet on:
BRONCOS CHIEFS PACKERS .
All three were winners!
The 1/e based skip for roulette is much higher: 15. The fruition cycle is also much higher than in American football betting. It appears that the systems based on skips ABOVE 1/e degree of certainty perform more poorly than the systems based on skips UNDER/EQUAL TO 1/e degree of certainty.
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0-Roulette Skip Chart and System Hits
File: HAMB0106.BAK; Date: 10-25-2006
Spins Analyzed: 1000
-----------------------
* Total hits 2 skips SUM-UP TO 30 -> 194 hits in 1000 ( 19 %)
* Total hits 2 skips UNDER/EQUAL 15 -> 110 hits in 1000 ( 11 %)
* Total hits 2 skips ABOVE 15 -> 373 hits in 1000 ( 37 %)
* Total hits 3 skips UNDER/EQUAL 15 -> 36 hits in 1000 ( 4 %)
* Total hits 3 skips ABOVE 15 -> 238 hits in 1000 ( 24 %)
* Total hits Your System <= 15 15 -> 110 hits in 1000 ( 11 %)
*********************************
I deleted the top 12 spins from the Hamburg casino results file: HAMB0106.WH1. I saved to the new working file HAMB0106.BAK. I checked the roulette numbers generated by the systems against the 12 “future” spins.
The system #1 predicted 10 numbers with 5 hits. Total to play: 12 * 10 = 120; total winnings: 5 * 36 = 180.
The system #2 predicted 4 numbers with 2 hits. Total to play: 12 * 4 = 48; total winnings: 2 * 36 = 72.
The system #3 predicted 15 numbers with 4 hits. Total to play: 12 * 15 = 180; total winnings: 4 * 36 = 144.
The system #4 predicted 1 number with 0 hits.
The system #5 predicted 11 numbers with 1 hit.
The systems UNDER/EQUAL TO possibly perform better because of shorter cycles of fruition.
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The lottery offers a mixed bag. The pick3 and pick4 games have short skips and cycles of fruition. All systems predicted, in general, 1 or 2 digits to play. The systems hit 1 of 1 or 1 of 2 in the next drawing. I did not check for multiple draws.
The lotto games do not hit well in the very next drawing. That’s so because their 1/e skips and cycles of fruition are longer. I saw lotto situations with 0 winners of 16, or 0 in 10, or 2 in 17 numbers. But those situations create an advantage for ‘strategy in reverse’ playing. Chances are, the skip strategies will not hit immediately in a lotto game. We can eliminate those numbers altogether, or eliminate groups of 2, 3 numbers, etc.
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Further testing can be done only manually at this time. I don’t have software to test automatically — in the manner of GridCheck632.EXE, for example. If you have the patience, you can test by going back 100 draws or so in your lotto/lottery game. Then generate the systems for one drawing at a time. You go up from draw #101 to draw #100, then to draw #99, then to draw #98, etc.
SkipSystem.EXE version 3.0 is as-is. I verified quite a few situations and found the program to yield the correct results. But, again, I do not claim I tested the program extensively. I encourage you to trust but verify. Do some testing before deciding to play.
Joined: 21 May 2006 Posts: 64 Location: Bucuresti Romania
Posted: Oct 25, 2006 12:22 Post subject:
Thank you very much Ion for upgrade of this software.
Even if I don't write long ago on this forum, I was every present here.
The SKIPS concept ( descover as Ion) help me in choice of numbers in Bookye Lottery ( and I'm sure in clasic lottery).
The improve are great :
1.two last consecutive skips;
2.three last consecutive skips.
3.,,The program does NOT count the 1st skip in the string and the last skip (i.e. for each number analyzed). The method is a lot more accurate than before. The 1st skip is not complete yet; it is still running and we don’t know when it will end. The last skip is not certain: We don’t know if the program had sufficient data to establish the last skip. "
4.etc
I bet in the last time in Bookmakers Lottery, ( using SKIPS strategy), and I won often.
I find in a italian forum a strategy based in ,,equilibrium cycle" and conjunctively with SKIPS strategy work good.
Soon I post here the theory for ,,equilibrium cycle".
Joined: 03 Aug 2006 Posts: 19 Location: MERIDA, YUCATAN, MEXICO
Posted: Oct 26, 2006 13:10 Post subject:
Tks again Marcher:
Skipsystem ver3.0 is great. I've been testing it in a pick3 game going back in my datafile and, several times, i get at least two of three winning numbers by position in the Ffg-3p.sys file. Many other times i get the three winning numbers.
Now i'm trying to find a way to create the combinations with those numbers and still have good chance to hit the next winning number.
In my country, on november 4th a new game will begin.
this would be the winning results:
in this game you need to pick 1 number from 1 to 5 in each one of the 8 blank spaces around the square. The winner will be the one who cross one line in vertical, horizontal or transversal way, of course if your numbers selected match the results of the lottery comission. Max limes can be 7 or 8.
do you think it can be possible to aply any of your free software to this kind of game to analize it?
Super Crocodilule Aztec & Tequila Colleague-Of-Mine:
I don’t want to offer software for new games anymore. They always invent new schemes to “beat” existing software. They invent schemes like sudoku, or lotto games like 0 of 45 (that’s ‘1 of 46’ by complicated transposing…)
I would like to inform you that I upgraded SkipSystem.EXE to the max. It is now version 4.0. If I intend to stop releasing more free software, I want to exit with a big bang!
Well, again, I want you, the registered members of this message board, to be the first ones to use that great piece of software of mine. I know! I know! It is only a dozen of registered members who visit this community daily. More than a hundred daily visitors are not registered members. Sometimes, there are so many visitors that this forum refuses to open — even to its administrator!
I want also to express my gratitude for your spreading the word. I can see in the stats hundreds of daily referrals to my web site via email, especially Yahoo mail. I assume that many of the referring emails are sent by members of our community.
Yes, I made a special request at my download sites to express your appreciation for my work by letting other people know about my efforts. I want to stress again that I do NOT expect you to favor me in any way whatsoever. Just be truthful to yourself. That means you can be negative regarding my ideas, work, software, etc. I don’t really care. I mean, I care. But I don’t get disturbed by negative opinions as long as they are genuine. Hatred does not qualify as genuine opinion. If I think that an opinion is the result of hate, I do respond. And I always respond like Ion Saliu. I stress the TRUTH. They want to attack me? They are “welcome”! I swear I don’t want to go fishing with dynamite!
Matter of fact, those who hate and attack me help me much more than those who appreciate my work — but keep silent! Why don’t the “silent ones” spread the word around? It might be because they don’t want many other people know about me. We have a serious issue of character here!
I understand there is drawback to an increased number of visitors. It makes my website harder to access. Sometimes I get into serious trouble just by trying to upload new/updated software. By some mysterious coincidence, I had a very hard time trying to upload this very SkipSystem.EXE! Matter of fact, I wrote this message while waiting to upload SkipSystem.EXE. After writing, I waited a couple more hours! (Don’t ask me how many times I cursed, or in how many languages I cursed!) I also bid at eBay on a piece of software. They cheat big time on eBay! I was outbid in the last 10 minutes! But, guess, what? The same item, by the same seller, came back! If they want a minimum price — why don’t they say so HONESTLY??? Bastards!
Version 4.0 (same number as MDIEditor And Lotto WE!) of SkipSystem.EXE adds one feature frequently requested by guests of my site. Sort the lottery digits, numbers, horses, teams…by frequency, from the best to the worst. Good and bad are relative terms here. The best here means the numbers with the highest frequency. Sometimes, the numbers with the worst frequency are good — it depends on the strategy!
The sorted numbers are first listed in spreadsheet format. Then, they are listed on one line that can be copied-and-pasted and saved to a text file.
I know the rationale of this specific request. Players want to play numbers from two or three groups: Hot, Mild, Cold. I don’t think I am inclined to talk much about such “strategies”. I can only say that the parpaluck is very important. The parpaluck represents the range of analysis: Number of past drawings to analyze. The lottery/gambling numbers appearing in the latest parpaluck behave differently from previous parpalucks (periods of events). In a few words: The last trend is…the hot trend!
I exemplify the new feature in SkipSystem.EXE by Football NFL '15 Teams'.
For the past 15 NFL seasons or so, the top teams based on ‘against the spread’ (ATS) are:
The PANTHERS, JAGUARS, RAVENS, BROWNS, TEXANS are relatively new teams. The Cleveland BROWNS were replaced by the Baltimore RAVENS. The Cleveland BROWNS were reinstated after a few years. The Houston TEXANS are the newest team on the NFL roster. They are real bad, as far as winning…any kind of winning…is concerned.
The most “unpleasant” surprises are two teams with several championships each: Washington REDSKINS and Oakland RAIDERS. They are not good against the spread. Matter of fact, they have had several losing seasons in the past ten years or so. The San Francisco 49ERS were a marquee team in the 1980’s and 1990’s. They also collapsed in the past ten years or so.
The San Francisco 49ERS are the last team I ever rooted for. I no longer have favorite teams in any sports. My heart always beats fantastically well now! I can always watch a good game now — I don’t care who wins or loses! I just love the game, not the participants. A good game is independent from the participants — if you can get what I mean. Those two bad teams of yesterday can play a great game today. That’s the only thing I am interested in: A GOOD GAME!
The largest number of TV stations I can receive are located in Baltimore, Maryland. The Baltimoreans are fanatical about their teams or athletes. I mean, they are maniacs! They organized parades for a baseball player, a swimmer, and a figure skater that looked like medieval parades for kings and queens! Of course, I only watched one or two minutes of those disgusting events! The problem I have is that the Baltimore TV stations are so obsessed with their sports teams that they don’t care a bit about games of national interest! The Baltimore teams are pathetic for the most part of every season. Yet, I am offered the possibility to only watch those pathetic Baltimore teams! If everybody were like myself, every TV station-USA would broadcast only games of national interest. Only games that matter — like making the playoffs, or winning a division, or a series, etc. Every team would strive to get better in order to be seen on national television.
I catch also (but more poorly) TV stations located in Washington, DC. The Washingtonians are not nearly as maniacal as the Baltimoreans. Probably because Washington, DC is considered a Nobody’s Town, USA. The most common element in political advertising in the US of A is: “Don’t vote him/her because he/she is a Washington insider!” So, I don’t have to watch those pathetic Washington Redskins when they are pathetic (like for the last 10 seasons or so)… Sorry, Senator! Sorry, Congresswoman! Sorry, Congressman! Sorry, Justice! Sorry, Mister Vice President!
The stats are different for the past 5 seasons (or so) plus the 2006 season.
The New England PATRIOTS (hosted in Boston) are a very hot team, indeed. They won 3 of the last 5 championships (Super Bowl). Against the spread: They also fared very well — 56% of the time. That’s remarkable, super crocodilule! The Jacksonville JAGUARS and Baltimore RAVENS are the top “pleasant” surprises up there! Although both teams have been pathetic to watch for the past 4-5 seasons! No game whatsoever!
So, please make sure you got the very latest (and last!) version of SkipSystem.EXE. It’s version 4.0 dated October 2006.
Does anyone know a sports handicapper betting website based on the theories of Nicholas Taleb? There is supposedly a sports betting website that is based on the probability and statistic techniques of Nicholas Taleb. Anyone outthere know what site this is? Thank you! _________________ yahoo keyword tool
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