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marcher
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Joined: 19 May 2006
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Location: Gettysburg, PA

PostPosted: May 19, 2010 15:06    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adam:

You make a very good point. I did make my point too. There are materials at my website and also in these forums. About testimonials from winners and lottery systems/software authors.

Gail Howard is the most common name in that regard: Testimonials. She started the frenzy long before me, in the 1980s. I wrote more here:

My take on Gail Howard's lotto methodology in 2005.

That's all there is to Gail's lottery methodology: the first two skips of every lotto number. It takes much more effort to build a powerful lottery system! Many more filters are needed to eliminate that impressive number of lotto combinations.

Unfortunately, I also have an issue of decency with Gail Howard's method as she advertises it. She claims more than 90 users/customers who are lotto jackpot winners. For some reason she got stuck with that number — 90+ — since the 1980's (I think I remember it correctly)! That smells like deception!

Mathematics always comes to the rescue in all human disputes. Gail's lottery method (a tiny percent of all the strategies in my lottery theory/software) leads to playing around 18 lotto numbers. Again, I may not give you details — but 18 lottery numbers is a rosy outcome! She does not recommend playing all the combinations generated by 18 numbers in a lotto–6 game.

Total combinations in a lotto 6/18 game is 18564. Gail proposes a 42–line wheel assuring '4 of 6'. Granted, it is the tightest lotto-6 wheel for 18 numbers. Nevertheless, that tight lotto wheel guarantees, at best, '1 in 442' probability to hit the jackpot. Further translation. It takes 442 successful situations (when Gail Howard's statistical system predicts all 6 winning lotto numbers) for one case of the 6/18 lotto wheel hitting the jackpot. That is overly optimistic because the lotto wheels perform worse when higher prizes are concerned.

Let's say that every customer of Gail Howard's software/strategy wins at least once a year (an average of 100 drawings). I make Gail Howard a huge concession here; FFG yields far worst than 1 in 100 draws! In fact, I checked randomly groups of 200 drawings in the results file of the lotto 6/49 U.K. game. The national lottery of the United Kingdom has a large database. I could NOT find a single winning situation for Gail Howard's method in 200 lotto 6/49 draws!

One single user of Gail Howard's lotto strategy would have to wait 442 years to hit the lotto jackpot. IF - and this looks like an impossible if - her lottery strategy would hit once in 100 drawings! She would need almost 4 million customers to assure the 90+ number of jackpot winners. Again, keep in mind that a lotto 6–18 wheel cannot offer a jackpot chance better than 1 in 442. The indecent thing is that Gail Howard considers a lotto 6–18 wheel to hit automatically the jackpot!

Question:
Did Gail Howard have 4 million customers in the 1980's? Not even close!
Does Gail Howard have 4 million customers in the third millennium? Far, far from that!

Another thing Gail Howard does: Rank the numbers by frequency and select the top half, or so. My software FrequencyRank.exe is far superior (the source code is also available!) What’s worse: Gail Howard’s software even mixes different game formats in the database!

I offer far more effective software to apply the frequency as a strategy: SkipDecaFreq6.exe. I presented the lotto frequency software at my website and also in these forums. Thornc also presented here his original software, with the source code in Python. Gail Howard’s lottery-frequency method doesn’t come even close!

Now, it is undeniable that Gail Howard’s whole lotto methodology is no more that 1%-2% of all my lottery theory and software. So, if she claims hundreds of jackpot winners — how many lotto winners my software made?!

Testimonials are widely considered deception these days. A testimonial like this has no value whatsoever: “I chose 18 numbers from those 25 recommended by Gail Howard’s method. Then I played the 18-number lotto wheel from her book!”

Gail Howard probably approached the jackpot winners who said publicly they used a lotto wheel in her book. She signed an affidavit that she would make no claim whatsoever regarding the winner’s prize. The lotto winner in exchange will accept a testimonial written by Gail Howard. All those testimonials sound like the creation of one author.

There was a time when some people sent to me all kinds of testimonials. In truth, many years ago, I had hopes that winners would share with me their prizes. Then, I received revealing information regarding testimonials. They were very delicate legally. Why should a winner risk legal action pursuing a share of the prize for the author of the software or system?

The fact is that no real lotto winner will go public and truthfully reveal what system they used — if they really used one. Big lotto winners actually receive this type of advice from lawyers! I was informed of a lotto syndicate who accepted new members. The syndicate also informed what software they were using: MDIEditor And Lotto WE! Suddenly, that syndicate disappeared!

Indeed, I should win the lottery myself using my own software. A coincidence: I received an email with the proposition that I and the person should consider collaborating in winning the lottery. I surely consider that. It’s someone I can trust. Probably I’ll think even more seriously after my trip.

Ion Saliu
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adam



Joined: 03 Nov 2009
Posts: 140

PostPosted: May 19, 2010 15:31    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ion,

Now you are talking and I like the last part of your posting.

I realize that most of the GH testimonials is baloney, however you need lots of traffic and customers. I can think of 2 ways to make it happen. You win as a living proof of how effective your system can be if applied with insight, cleverness and patience or a couple of jackpot winners give their testimonials. The best is both of two worlds.

I would not hesitate a moment to go ahead and say that I won the lottery using your software if I ever did. I do not believe I'm the only one.
The thing is your truthful arguments hardly appeal to people. Why? The fact is they prefer to go the easy way and hope that they can win on intuition and a couple of simple rules. That is not the reason no to try to attract them to your software.
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adam



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PostPosted: May 20, 2010 08:20    Post subject: Reply with quote

Still what you have written abt. your strategy way back in 1986 which could have made you a jackpot winner makes my wonder how much different it seems to be today. Hitting a jackpot with only 10 combos played within a couple of draws seems like a dream. Of course, we can set such tight filters that only a handful of combinations will be generated, but then it takes hundreds of drawings to make it happen if we are still alive and lucky enough to see it.
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marcher
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Location: Gettysburg, PA

PostPosted: May 20, 2010 11:47    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, the 10-combination play was the very beginning of computer-generated lotto for me. The combos were generated by a VIC-20 who belonged to one of my farm fellows. We only played for a couple of drawings. I think it was in less than 10 drawings that would have hit a 5-winner.

You are asking about the big event: The lotto jackpot occurrence. I know exactly it was a Friday in February. We were pruning apple trees in an orchard. The year could be 1986 (most likely) or 1987. I did write about it at my website (the old message board). A couple of messages are still there. It was about random numbers generated by computers. I was amazed how the old home computers generated random numbers that resembled more closely manual drawings in lotteries. The random seed for those computers was hardware-based. By contrast, the IBM PC relied on software-generated random seeds (TIMER). There are several pages at Saliu.com about those issues:

Randomness, Degree of Randomness, Degree of Certainty, True Random Numbers Generators;
BASIC source code software to generate true random & unique numbers.

Now, the big lotto strategy that did hit the jackpot.

I had a more powerful home computer: Atari 800XL. It was a discontinued model, so I bought it real cheap. The drawback was it didn’t have a disk drive and I couldn’t find one. I had to type a program again and again, every time I wanted to run it. The Atari had 64K of RAM, which was fantastic those days! The speed too seemed fantastic to me those days…although today would be like a tortoise. The Atari would run continuously for days and nights to generate lotto combinations in the programs I wrote. The programs couldn’t be too long because of the memory restrictions and because I had to retype them every time.

I played with two of my farm fellows (Puerto Ricans, the old one had great musical talent). The 6-40 lotto game back then required to play at least two tickets for $1. We played a total of 36 combinations, for $6 each. I had won twice before with one of the Puerto Ricans (‘4 of 6’). The three of us also won once another ‘4 of 6’ third prize. That prize usually paid over $100 per winning ticket.

We played 12-number lotto wheels. I created the wheel as I explained here:

Easily create a 12-number lotto wheel.

I used two wheels for the same 12-number group. The first wheel used the group in lexicographic order, from 1 to 12, in 6 combinations. Then, I shuffled the 12-number set and applied the wheel to it. I always used the same shuffled set to save time. In total, we played 3 groups of 12 numbers each.

The program I wrote generated 12-number combinations randomly. The numbers were not sorted: RAM, speed, and retyping were the main reasons. I wrote the last 20 lotto drawings at the beginning of the program, in the READ/DATA section. I hadn’t seen any 4-number group repeating from the last 20 drawings. Of course, the average no-repeat is much longer than 20 draws. Trying to eliminate all 4-number groups in 12-number combinations would be daunting task! So, I had to be selective. I eliminated 1-2-3-4 and 9-10-11-12 for sure; then, a few more groups in between, like 4-5-6-7, 8-9-10-11.

The computer had a real hard time! I let it run until I saw at least 10 combinations on screen (no disk to save the output!) I wrote down the last three 12-number combos (2 lines each on screen). Then, wheel each line twice (manually). It was laborious (you can try it for yourself) and it took some time. Then, fill out the play slips. There were some errors every time, especially filling out the lotto play-cards.

One of the 12-number lines had as first numbers the lotto jackpot winners that day. The first line in the wheel (1-2-3-4-5-6) had the jackpot winner. It would have taken around an hour to have everything ready to play. The Puerto Rican guy who played with me and gave me a ride to buy groceries and play the lottery could wait only a few minutes that day. His son was visiting. Curiously that day, the son gave his father an Apple II computer, so that I could write better lottery programs! That day, however, we played again the lotto tickets from the previous week.

I never touched that Apple and we never played again together.

Those with programming skills can write a program based on this lotto strategy. Of course, they can improve on it a lot! Add more routines to make the random generation slower (to resemble more closely the manual drawing). I don’t reveal that sort of source code at this time. I already revealed a lot about my old lotto strategy! Soon, you’ll see it in some expensive lotto strategy by the Gails of the world! BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Best of luck!

Ion Saliu
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adam



Joined: 03 Nov 2009
Posts: 140

PostPosted: May 20, 2010 12:10    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can imagine how you felt, but still I would not let it go. Just hard lines, but if you could do it once you should be able to do it again. Look how much more you have discovered since then. Do it Ion.
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adam



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PostPosted: May 20, 2010 15:38    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ion,

Could I ask you for something? Do you still keep some place your old version of Skipsystem.exe 2.1. If I'm correct it calculated skips in accordance with FFG for 6/49 games. I have done some backtesting manually using the double FFG and checking for winners line after line and it seems to give better results for my game that the version 4.0.
I would greatly appreciate your info.
Thanks

Adam
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marcher
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Joined: 19 May 2006
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Location: Gettysburg, PA

PostPosted: May 20, 2010 17:43    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it’s a good idea to close this thread. Adam’s initial problem was solved satisfactorily. Also, Googlebot gets really tired of re-indexing too often this thread. If you look at the number of guests at the bottom of the main page, Googlebots represent most of them. This thread has had a positive referring effect to my main website. I like that…

But I need to bring one of the matters I raised here to proper closure.

I mentioned an Apple II computer in my previous post. That could have been the proverbial case of “add insult to the injury”. The old Puerto Rican, the musician, advised me in the strongest terms: “You should never touch that computer! You never saw it…” The following days, I heard other people talking about that glitzy but expensive Apple computer. It sounded fishy! A few days later, the Puerto Rican fellow and lotto colleague, let everybody know that he had returned that computer to his son.

The same Puerto Rican fellow and lotto colleague put me in another delicate situation not long before the lotto-jackpot debacle. He brought to my place (a house owned by the farm) a rifle for sharpshooters. You could zoom in and hit targets at long distances! I had also good relations with the postmaster in my hometown. When he heard about the rifle, he was shocked! “He said: “What the hell were you thinking? Why would you need a weapon, when you don’t have a car? You gotta buy a car first and foremost. Leave the weapons until after you become a U.S. citizen…” Wise advice … and I followed it faithfully.

My Puerto Rican fellow and lotto colleague was a nice guy, though. He gave me rides to the grocery store frequently. In two or three years after the lotto-jackpot debacle, he shocked us all. He had opened a restaurant at his place (a house owned by the farm). It was only a front-end for a drug operation. He was arrested for drug dealing, although it was not a large-scale operation. He served time in jail. Luckily for him, he was permitted in a so-called “work-release program”. He accepted a hard 12-hour a day job. He made good money, however — a lot more than working on a farm or dealing drugs. He was freed earlier for good behavior. He was hired by the same company he worked for as an inmate. He bought a house soon (an impossible dream for farm workers). The jail made him a totally different person.

My Puerto Rican fellow and lotto colleague was a nice guy, as I said. He would invite me and other of his former farm mates (Puerto Ricans only) to his favorite restaurant. He said something really interesting. “Ion. You are the most intelligent man we’ve ever known. I think about the things I did, and how much money I got. You should be a freaking millionaire, man!”

Well, not exactly! But I’ve got memories worth millions.

THE END

Ion Saliu
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