Posted: May 31, 2006 12:22 Post subject: Lottery And Statistics
Lottery And Statistics
By Crocodil Apache
Translated from Romanian by Ion Saliu
I start with a few words regarding the lottery. Is it simply a game of luck? I got a few friends who always argue against my ideas. They argue that success in lottery means 100% luck. Unfortunately, they don't back their argument my some facts. I don't consider myself to be a lucky individual. But I am not absurd, either. Luck has its importance, but I believe in mathematics and statistics. In my opinion, a lottery player who uses statistics has an advantage in the long run. An advantage compared to an individual who only plays based on luck (I would not call such an individual a player).
The goal of playing the lottery is 'to guess' (sounds bad!) all the numbers that win a jackpot. To that end, we have to play very many combinations. Our goal should be playing as few combinations as possible with the highest chance to win. THAT'S WHERE THE POWER OF FILTERS STEPS IN. We need to build filters based on statistical observation.
To better understand my point, I'll give as an example a lotto game played in my country (Romania). They game is named JOKER. I have all 292 drawings in the game so far. The game has two drawing chambers. The first chamber draws 5 numbers from a total of 45 balls. Then, 1 ball from a total of 20.
The prizes are as follows:
First prize (Jackpot): 5 + 1
Second prize: 5 + 1
Third prize: 4 + 1
Fourth prize: 4
Fifth prize: 3 + 1
Sixth prize: 3
Seventh prize: 2 + 1
Eighth prize: 1 + 1
Total combinations for the first chamber: C(45, 5) = 1,221,759.
Total combinations (like Powerball–type of game): 1,221,759 x 20 = 24,435,180.
STATISTICAL OBSERVATIONS
I. There has been NO repeat of 5 numbers from the first chamber (in 292 draws).
II. How various groups of numbers repeated in TWO consecutive drawings:
0 repeats: 158 cases or draws (54.1%)
1 repeat: 111 draws (37.67%)
2 repeats: 22 draws (7.53%)
3 repeats: 1 draw (0.07%)
The lotto number 15 came out once in three consecutive draws = 1 repeat
The lotto number 7 came out once in three consecutive draws = 1 repeat
Total repeats in the last three consecutive drawings: 2
IV. The distribution of the EVEN numbers in 292 drawings
Draws with 0 even numbers: 7 (2.4%)
Draws with 1 even numbers: 41 (14.04%)
Draws with 2 even numbers: 98 (33.56%)
Draws with 3 even numbers: 100 (34.25%)
Draws with 4 even numbers: 38 (13.01%)
Draws with 5 even numbers: 8 (2.74%)
V. The distribution of the ODD numbers in 292 drawings
Draws with 0 even numbers: 8 (2.74%)
Draws with 1 even numbers: 38 (13.01%)
Draws with 2 even numbers: 100 (34.25%)
Draws with 3 even numbers: 98 (34.56%)
Draws with 4 even numbers: 41 (14.04%)
Draws with 5 even numbers: 7 (2.4%)
I conclude not the first installment. I promise to continue.
I have at least 100 statistical observations that can help building powerful filters. And thus, the filters will reduce the numbers of combinations to play. You can check the histories of you lotteries. You might be surprised to find similar percentages.
First conclusions:
1) Don’t play any of the combinations already drawn
2) Don't play combinations with 2 or 3 numbers from the last drawing: 7.53%
(It's very rare to see two or more numbers repeat in two consecutive drawings.)
3) Don't play combinations with 3 numbers from the last TWO drawings: 1.05%
4) Don't play combinations with 0, 4, 5 EVEN numbers
5) Don't play combinations with 0, 4, 5 ODD numbers.
Posted: May 31, 2006 12:41 Post subject: Filters are good; many filters are great!
Crocodil Apache:
Your effort seems to be laborious. Using Excel, probably?
You are right: The filters are the best weapons to beat the odds.
There is one common filter between your system and my software. That's ELIMINATE ALL PAST DRAWINGS in my lotto software. But the thing is, the past draws have an increased chance to repeat after a while. In the case of 5/45 game with C(45, 5) = 1,221,759 combinations: The probability is at least 50% that at least one combination will be a repeat in 1300 drawings. Of course, 1300 is a lot of drawings! The idea is that a filter should have two levels: a minimum and a maximum. When the minimum level is 1300 (for all numbers in a draw), then all 1300 draws will be eliminated. But if the maximum level of the filter is set to 1301, then only the last 1300 draws will be played.
Run my free program COLLISIONS.EXE for this type of calculations (includes roulette, too).
Also, quite a few filters are needed to reduce further the amount of the combinations to play. Otherwise, using the four or five of the filters you presented, will require to chose the numbers randomly (but from a smaller group of combinations to play).
Joined: 21 May 2006 Posts: 64 Location: Bucuresti Romania
Posted: May 31, 2006 21:35 Post subject:
Da Ion, (marcher) este ceva munca la statistici, insa sper ca in final sa merite efortul.Pentru statistici utilizez si Excel si
alte programe si apoi le sintetizez.NIMIC FARA MUNCA !
Ion, multumesc pentru traducere.Asta dovedeste ca sunt pe drumul bun si a meritat efortul de a-mi traduce ceea ce am scris.
Mai am inca multe, foarte multe observatii cu ajutorul carora se vor putea construii filtre.NU VREAU S-MI ACORD SINGUR LAURI.Nu toate observatiile pe care le-am scris sunt ale mele.Unele le-am preluat din programe de loto, la unele m-am gandit eu, si de accea in finalul postului, poate impreuna (deoarece nu sunt un bun scriitor) le sortam in functie de importanta, (la unele care par fara baze vom renunta), si in final vom face un rezumat (o sinteza) cu titlul de
FILTRE ESENTIALE IN JOCUL DE LOTO !
Lottery And Statistics II
By Crocodil Apache
Translated from Romanian by Ion Saliu
STATISTICAL OBSERVATIONS
VI. Consecutive numbers: It is rare for 3 consecutive numbers to appear in the same combination; e.g. 28, 29, 30. We should play no more than 1 or 2 consecutive numbers in a combination.
The distribution of the consecutive numbers in the 292 drawings:
VII. This observation is related to VI above.
It is very rare to see a drawing with 2 sequences of 2 consecutive numbers; or, one sequence of 2 consecutive numbers plus a sequence of 3 consecutives.
VII. Ending digits
It is very rare for a combination to have 3 numbers with identical ending digits. For example: (1, 8, 11, 21, 42) where 1, 11, 21 have 1 as ending digit.
The distribution of the ending digits in the 292 lotto drawings:
Ending digit: 0
0 numbers ending in 0: 166 draws (56.85%)
1 number ending in 0: 113 draws (38.70%)
2 numbers ending in 0: 12 draws (4.11%)
3 numbers ending in 0: 1 draws (0.34%)
The rest of the digits (1 to 9) show very similar stats.
IX. Decades
It is very rare to see a combination with 3 or more numbers from the same decade. I consider the decades as follows:
The distribution of the decades; only decade #1 is considered here.
0 numbers from decade 1: 85 draws (29.11%)
1 number from decade 1: 125 draws (42.81%)
2 numbers from decade 1: 63 draws (21.58%)
3 numbers from decade 1: 17 draws (5.82%)
4 numbers from decade 1: 2 draws (0.68%)
The other decades show very similar results.
X. Twin numbers
Examples of twin numbers: 11, 22, 33, 44, etc.
The distribution of the twin numbers in the archive of the lotto game I play, 292 draws so far:
I want to stress that these statistics refer to my particular lotto game. Some stats may be different, depending on your lotto game. I have stats for other lotto games and many percentages tend to be the same.
Hope to come back soon with more statistical observations that can be used as filters.
Until then, good luck.
Posted: Jun 01, 2006 15:28 Post subject: True lotto, lottery filters
Crocodilule:
Like you, many other lottery analysts, developers, or authors refer to FILTERS in the wrong manner. I call such parameters 'methods of grouping the numbers'. Lotto players can group the numbers by odd/even, low/high, by ending digits, by decades, etc. etc. Those are not true lotto/lottery filters.
The concept of 'lottery filters' was not before late 1980's, when I ran out of coffee filters one winter morning. Europeans can drink Turkish coffee, without need for filters. In USA, coffee and filters are inseparable. That morning I added the synonym 'filter' to 'eliminating condition' in my newly born lottery software. The 'filters' or 'eliminating conditions' reduce the amount of combinations based on past drawings. The elimination or reduction can go all the way down to 0 (zero) combinations to play. By contrast, grouping the numbers always leads to a constant number of combinations. The group is never equal to zero. For example, a lotto game has a constant number of combinations consisting of 3 evens and 3 odds. I wrote more extensively about filters. The best start is from the main lotto/lottery page:
Lottery, Lotto Software, Strategy
The golden parameter is my version of the standard deviation. A good mathematical/statistical range of the standard deviation controls the decades, the ending digits, even the twins, plus the sums, the deltas, odds/even and some more grouping parameters.
Also importantly, the filters are not of much use if their skips are unknown. Reporting the skips of each filter is of the essence.
A test of the HTML publishing feature of this forum.
Filtering is everything in playing the lottery, therefore in lottery software!
I have a problem with other lottery software programs. A bunch of them are downright fraudulent attempts to stripping people off their money! I don't want to even talk about them any more… Other programs, some of them with some reputation, simply hide the mathematical truth. Worse, most of them distort the facts. They distort and torture mathematics. They don't offer strategy-checking functions because the results would be disastrous for their lotto programs! You will never see skip charts for their so-called lottery strategies!
I introduced the concept of lotto or lottery filters in the early 1990's. Years after that, most other lotto software developers introduced the word "filters" in their software. They haven't a clue what lottery filtering is about! They consider as filters: odd/even numbers, low/high numbers. Those are NOT lotto filters, and that's NOT lottery filtering. It's simply a way of grouping lotto numbers. There is a fixed group of even lotto numbers. The number of combinations in the group stays always the same. It's a large number. Grouping the lotto numbers by odd/even and/or low/high leads to an impractical number of lotto combinations to play. You can find various formulas I coined at this web site:
Not to mention that the large fixed groups of odd/even, etc. lotto numbers are very STREAKY! A player (or groups of lottery players) could easily spend 100 million to win one million!
So, right now, I cannot see any method better than mine.
Joined: 21 May 2006 Posts: 64 Location: Bucuresti Romania
Posted: Jun 02, 2006 06:42 Post subject:
Thank you for the the goods advices. I try now to find the median value of skips (not average) for filters.
Yesterday i hit 3 of 5 numbers draw for my lottery. I missed the bonus ball but i won (not much money).
I played only 13 combinations.
Using MDIE software i see in Any3 column a great value. So i play only the numbers wich appear in the last 6 draws (22 numbers)
After i applied upper filters (with one other software) + i eliminated some pairs.
I follow in MDIE software the streak and when i find three consecutive + + + signs i think is a good opportunity to play.
Lottery And Statistics III
By Crocodil Apache
Translated from Romanian by Ion Saliu
STATISTICAL OBSERVATIONS – Continued
XI. It happens very rarely for a lotto number to repeat in 3 consecutive drawings. For example:
14 25 18 19 45
14 27 31 33 41
The probability of number 14 coming out in the next draw is very slim. So, don't play a lotto number that was drawn in the last two consecutive drawings.
XII. The sum–totals recorded in the 292 drawings are as follows:
Range 15 – 50: 2 cases (0.68%)
Range 51 - 100: 81 draws (27.74%)
Range 101 - 150: 175 draws (59.93%)
Range 151 - 200: 34 draws (11.64%)
Range 200 – 215: 0 cases.
The mean average of the numbers in the 292 draws is 117.
The minimum sum–total is 15.
The maximum sum–total is 215.
The sum–totals can also be broken down by even and odd numbers.
XIII. Complementary numbers
It is very rare to see more than 2 complementary numbers in a draw. That is, the last digit of a number is equal to the first digit of the next lotto number.
For example:
12 24 35 41 44 : 1 case (lotto numbers 12, 24).
XV. Mirror numbers
It is very rare to find drawings with more than 3 mirror numbers.
These are the mirror numbers in a lotto 5/45 game:
(12, 21), (13, 31), (14, 41), (23, 32), (24, 42), (34, 43).
By Crocodil Apache
Translated from Romanian by Ion Saliu
STATISTICAL OBSERVATIONS – Continued
XVI. The distance between two adjacent numbers (deltas)
Example:
1 3 15 22 26
The minimum distance (delta) = 2 (between numbers 1 and 3)
The maximum delta = 12 (between numbers 3 and 15)
The global distance (delta) = 2 + 12 + 7 + 4 = 25
The statistics regarding the minimum delta for the 292 drawings analyzed:
Minimum delta equal to 1: 127 drawings (43.49%)
Minimum delta equal to 2: 71 drawings (24.32%)
Minimum delta equal to 3: 36 drawings (12.33%)
Minimum delta equal to 4: 35 drawings (11.99%)
Minimum delta equal to 5: 10 drawings (3.42%)
Minimum delta equal to 6: 11 drawings (3.77%)
Minimum delta equal to 7: 0 cases
Minimum delta equal to 8: 2 drawings (0.68%)
XVII. Global interruptions (from odd to even, even to odd)
Example:
10 12 35 42 44
E E O E E
E = even
O = odd
There are 2 global interruptions in this example: 12-35 (from even to odd) and 35-42 (odd to even).
The statistics for this filter:
0 global interruptions: 15 draws (5.14%)
1 global interruption: 72 draws (24.66%)
2 global interruptions: 105 draws (35.96%)
3 global interruptions: 76 draws (26.03%)
4 global interruptions: 24 draws (8.22%)
XVIII. The frequency of a digit in a combination
Example:
1 3 32 33 45
The digit #3 shows a frequency of 4 in that combination.
The statistics for the digit #3:
Frequency equal to 0: 47 drawings (16.10%)
Frequency equal to 1: 91 drawings (31.16%)
Frequency equal to 2: 90 drawings (30.82%)
Frequency equal to 3: 45 drawings (15.81%)
Frequency equal to 4: 17 drawings (5.82%)
Frequency equal to 5: 3 drawings (0.68%)
A good strategy would be the eliminating of those combinations where a digit shows up more than 4 times. I used the digit #3 in my example. Eliminate the combinations of this kind: 3 31 33 36 45. Digit 3 appears 5 times. According to the above stats, it happened 0.68% of the time.
Proceed with the same strategy for all the digits: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9.
There are more statistical observations, but I don't want to bore you and make this thread too long. I would like to make a few more points before I conclude.
I strongly believe in statistics. In lottery, statistics and mathematics are the main weapons to win.
Statistics helps in finding the most rare possibilities in the past drawings so that we can eliminate them in combinations to play in future drawings. That's why I made my argument around the statistics of the real lotto game I play. I apply the stats as filters, but I noticed that they eliminate a CONSTANT number of combinations. That's why I name them STATIC filters.
While writing this thread, I had a new thought. What about filters that reduce more and more combinations while the game history grows? I will name such filters DYNAMIC. In short, the dynamic filters will leave fewer combinations to play for larger amounts of past draws. Practically, every new drawing will bring newer filters.
I will open soon a new topic: The dynamic filters in lottery.
Thanks Ion for your patience, reading and translating my writings.
Posted: Jun 03, 2006 13:14 Post subject: Eliminating the 37% of lousy combinations
Crocodil Apache:
The main problem with those so–called static filters is their streakiness. They are not true filters. They don't have a minimum level, and a maximum level. A true filter can be set TIGHTER or LOOSER. Like in coffee brewing. If you use five paper filters, the coffee will be very weak. If you don't use any filter, the coffee will ve very strong but with a lot of residuum. A lot of zat, like in Turkish coffee.
Also, the static filters (pseudo filters) always leave a constant number of combinations to play.
Finally, the filters like the ones you presented need a skip report. The player needs to know how those filters hit in the past. The median of the skips is also needed.
Like I said, I found a much better method to enable static filters: Standard deviation. A good usage of the standard deviation in controlling the static filters can be found in my online ActiveX random generator:
My newest lotto software applies the best, I believe, usage of the static filters. I call them INNER FILTERS. When enabled, the inner filters eliminate more than 1/3 (33%+) of the total combinations. For my lotto 5/39 game, the remaining 66%+ combinations have shown an astonishing frequency: 80%–90%. In fact, it is not astonishing. It is in accordance with 'Ion Saliu's paradox of N trials'. N in this case is equal to C(N, M): total possible combinations in the game. If N drawings are conducted, around 37% of the combinations will not come out. It may be that those 37% of the combos are in the range eliminated by inner filters (largely based on the FFG deviation).
Crocodilule, I certainly appreciate your effort. You certainly don't need anybody to translate what you write. You can do it for yourself: Write in Romanian and translate into English. I began like that some 10 years ago. Now I can write directly in English. I can also write directly in Romanian. I can also sing directly in Spanish.
I do not announce this forum at www.saliu.com. I want it to be discovered from other sources, and especially referred to by search engines. I am aware also of the World Cup 2006 (of real football, or soccer). The event is not very popular in the United States, although it is the most popular sporting event in the overwhelming majority of the world. The result will still be a lower number of visitors to my site. After World Cup 2006 I expect an increased number of visitors (and members) to this forum, too.
astazi am sa scriu cele 24 de numere pt jocul loto 5/40 din data de 27.06.2006. din 24 de numere ies cel putin 4 numere castigatoare.....sper sa ma puteti ajuta cu sistemul de filtrare. revin....
Posted: Jun 27, 2006 09:28 Post subject: English: The common language
It is best to write in English = the lingua franca of the Internet. Many, many more people will understand you and you will understand many, many more people. Otherwise, try to find a person who would be willing to translate for you. Problem is, everybody is very, very busy these days with their own businesses!
Posted: Jun 28, 2006 12:10 Post subject: Hi there!
Portugal here!
very happy to see Ion Saliu talking to us!
I like his ideas!
please talk about filters
I use a software called LOTTOHAT which I think is pretty good but I would like some filters and the program doesn't give it to me...
1st I filter the thousands of combinations and then I optimize 3 to 5
but on the filtering phase I would like to use some let's call them advanced filters like those deltas (skips between the numbers, adjacent digits, number of numbers sorted out on the last 6 draws « I believe Ion -on his website- tells something about the good probability of no more than 3 balls from the last 6 draws...please explain better Ion!)
Ion: is there any program you think I should use to do this filtering? your programs are DOS ?
Thank you all for giving me the chance to find the kind of people I would like to talk to about lottery!
This is the place!
Joined: 21 May 2006 Posts: 64 Location: Bucuresti Romania
Posted: Jun 28, 2006 15:56 Post subject:
Welcome Costin and Lucky*Star (Good luck for Portugal in World Footbal Championship).
I'm very busy but i write some words :
@Costin how you chose the 24 numbers ? ( intuition, hazard, premonition, etc.)
Please bring me some (STRONG) arguments in your selection.
And for me is hard to write in english but i use a dictionary. Is constructive for me because i learn.
@ Lucky*Star if you want se the software with the most filters check Softvision - Lottovision Software -. If i have the permision i put here the link. Is a italian software. I bought. The italian loto software are in my opinion the best. Unfortunately are designed ONLY for italian lotto but in help file you can see very much filters.
Now i give both a STRONG advice : READ and RE-READ Saliu site. This man is a genius.
He ofer much for free ( dar nu mura in gura ) but we must study him software and writings.
I use now some Saliu filters and believe me this filters are the best !
I write in a past post i work now in dynamics filters and when i finish I PROMISE WRITE here the results ( goods or disasters). I work this strategy from Loto 5 din 40 (roumanian loto).
Total combinations = 658 008. Is very hard because i work manual. I have now ONLY 1601 combinations.
I don't uncover nothing until i finish the job. Only a small clue : i use a Ion idea.
Posted: Jun 30, 2006 02:50 Post subject: analiza si statistica
sal Crocodil Apache.. AZI NE AFLAM IN DATA DE 30.06.2006...LA TRAGEREA D LOTO 5/40 DIN DATA DE 29.06.2006, AU IESIT CASTIGATOARE NUMERELE..6 11 17 18 27 19,,!!!! DECI DIN CELE 24 DE NUMERE PE CARE LE AM SCRIS.....AU IESIT TOATE CELE 6 !!!! HAIDETI DA FACEM IMPREUNA O FILTRARE A NUMERELOR SI SA INCEPEM SA CASTIGAM....DECI V AM DEMONSTRAT CA NU BAT CAMPII,,,,,IN CEEA CE PRIVESTE ALEGERA NUMERELOR AM UN SISTEM BAZAT PE EXTRAGERI,,,,,NU EXISTA UN FORUM ONLINE?....ORICUM POATE NE AJUTAM RECIPROC,,,BAFTA....
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