Posted: Dec 17, 2006 00:50 Post subject: Using Excel to Help Solve The Spread for NFL and NBA Games
I thought I would post this link to Solver. This can be helpful when establishing point spreads. I am working on a project and would like to ask for help from people with neural networks and AI experience. This could be fun and it will be profitable for the right person or group of people. I have some other formulas to help derive at the proper point spread as well as handicapping formulas.. Thanks again . I will be glad to correspond off forum. I do not wish to clutter the site.
JG
http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HA011246011033.aspx?pid=CL100570 _________________ I have a neural network and need help. Any one with AI experience or NN training please contact me. I have a huge business opportunity for the right person or group. This will be fun and profitable. Thanks
What else is new about Microsoft? Windows was a copy of Mac, which in turn was a copy of Xerox. First, it was Lotus 1-2-3 — only after copying 1-2-3 was Microsoft able to create Excel…And so on…and so forth…
I don’t know who you are, John Gator. But thanks for the information. I checked the link you provided. It appears to be genuinely a Microsoft domain (for Office Online).
The material at Microsofty.Office.com is barely a disguise of plagiarism and piracy of my spreadsheet known as SPORTS.XLS. It’s been a free download since 2000. The Microsoft “author” doesn’t make any effort to add something new to something he simply copied.
SPORTS.XLS takes into account the records of each team in two distinct categories: home record (host), and road record (visitor). For example, Team A has a home record of PointA11 – PointA12 and a visiting record of PointA21 – PointA22. Team B has a home record of PointB11 – PointB12 and a visiting record of PointB21 – PointB22.
Suppose Team B plays at Team A. You calculate the average of points scored at home by Team A and points allowed on the road by Team B:
(PointA11 + PointB12) / 2.
Nest, you calculate the average of points allowed at home by Team A and points scored on the road by Team B:
(PointA12 + PointB11) / 2.
Make the deduction:
{(PointA11 + PointB12) / 2} - (PointA12 + PointB11) / 2.
If the difference is positive, the home team (A) is favored to win by the margin of difference. If the difference is negative, the road team (B) is favored to win by the margin of difference.
Of course, that’s the ideal — call it the statistical ideal. It comes to life in around 65% of the situations (as far as I tested). No doubt, every week comes with a number of surprises or upsets. In the NFL, for example, around 1 in 3 games is a surprise.
I wonder why Microsoft invited me the past summer to beta test the new version of Office (for Vista)? They wanted me to do sports betting for them??? Are they afraid of bankruptcy of their software business?
Marcher, I am not really sure about Microsoft's thoughts or intentions, but thanks for the information.Sounds like you have very strong case.
One way to evaluate a team is to look at it's offensive yards per play and defensive yards allowed per play. As you would expect, the team that out gains more than they allow, tend to win.This is not exclusively accurate This measure is good to indicate or predict future performance.
Using the Internet and Excel, you can evaluate the entire league in a few minutes.
Using a spreadsheet downloaded with stats from NFL.com Select regular season. At the bottom of the page under sortable team rankings there is offense and defense options.
Click finding stats button. This will give you offense/defense yards per play.
Copy the stats to the spreadsheet sorted for each team. Subtract the def yds per play from the off yds per play. If the A Columns are offensive and the defensive yardages respectively, use
=B1-C1 in column D differential for each team which if positive, indicates a team that gains more yardage on offense than it surrenders on defense
This can be used to assist you analyzing point spreads..
Each 0.15 per play = 1 point .Divide 0.15 into this number and you will have a spread on a neutral venue. Normally home field is valued at 3 to 4
points . This a quick and easy way to find out if the spread is correct.
As with all tools this is just a guide to help ascertain if the point spread is correct. _________________ I have a neural network and need help. Any one with AI experience or NN training please contact me. I have a huge business opportunity for the right person or group. This will be fun and profitable. Thanks
Super Crocodilule & Investigative Colleague-Of-Mine:
Quote:
I am not really sure about Microsoft's thoughts or intentions, but thanks for the information. Sounds like you have a very strong case.
If you were a lawyer, we could have made big bucks!
I know about the stats at NFL.com. Most of the sports statistics, especially in the US, are worthless. Or, you might say, it’s like eating spaghetti with a chainsaw. The TV sports guys sound like statistical maniacs at times. You would hear them present the weirdest of the facts wrapped as bright stats. Things like:
~ the most yards rushed in 17 periods of play, following one timeout before a third-down-and-more-than-five-yards;
~ the longest time on the bench for a leading wide receiver after the first 9 games in the regular season;
~ the shortest punt immediately followed by the longest of the same kicker in back to back games;
~ the largest number of injured players in the same game who laid down on the field for the shortest aggregate time;
~ the shortest playbook in two consecutive wins following two back to back losses in the second half plus one game of the regular season;
~ the largest number of emptied Gatorade cups in a loss at home;
~ the largest number of emptied Gatorade cups in a win on the road in 3 and a half seasons;
~ etc., etc., etc….
There are lots of stats at NFL.com. But they are a huge eater of time while gaining no weight and no strength. Lots of offensive yardage doesn’t necessarily translate into wins. There are teams who can barely convert good yardage into points. They only score field goals, or come up empty at the end of a long drive. On the other hand, teams get good field position, don’t have a long TOP (time of possession): They score quickly and they score touchdowns. And then there are the turnovers. But they are also deceptive more often than not.
In the end, it all boils down to the WL columns: Wins-Losses. The Win-Loss thing is determined OFFICIALLY by deducting POINTS SCORED from POINTS ALLOWED. That’s the foundation of my sports-betting system incorporated in the SPORTS.XLS spreadsheet. That system and spreadsheet are often imitated but never duplicated — not even when pirated. Microsoft is included among the incapable would-be duplicators.
I know who they are and what their intentions are when they attack me. When they mouth-foam in emails to yours truly:
“Your damn betting spreadsheet is a piece of idiotism! Take your website off line!”
I think to myself:
“Self, another self-destructing parasite wants to pirate one of my systems! He kills himself to no avail. Halleluiah!”
How we use statistics very much resembles how we breathe. The healthy manner of breathing consists of one-two seconds air intake followed by one-two seconds of air expel. The sports statistics on TV resemble breathing in front of a high-powered ventilator.
I think to get it to work with NHL, NBA and MLB is to only use the last 5-15 games played or so. I'm only starting to experiment with this, but it does make the most sense to analyze them that way. Effectively taking advantage of the streaks of teams. In NFL since there are so few games it doesn't matter, but for the other sports where they play more than 80 regular season games it does.
How do I find objective spread betting information? I've browsed a lot of spread betting websites and they all cover spread betting to a certain extent, but I'm looking for a great website covering financial spread betting in detail, any recommendations? _________________ i need help
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